透视中国综合防灾减灾的主要进展及其挑战和战略对策

系统总结中国自然灾害风险主要特点和综合防灾减灾工作的现状特征,全面梳理综合防灾减灾工作的发展趋势,分析综合防灾减灾面临的三大挑战,提出有针对性和可实施性的五大战略对策。一方面,未来100年中国的气候变暖趋势将进一步加剧,极端天气事件发生的频率将增大,荒漠化、海平面上升、冰川退缩趋势将进一步加重,全球气候变化所引发的各类巨灾和由此触发的各类自然灾害的突发性、并发性、群发性、异常性日益凸显。另一方面,中国能源结构以煤为主,同时是世界上进口石油资源的大国,随着中国经济的发展,未来能源消费和二氧化碳排放量还将持续增长,经济社会发展对能源安全、粮食安全、生态安全提出了更高要求。为适应气候变化背景下的各类灾害带来的不利影响,中国应全面提高监测预警水平,建立综合防灾减灾体系,全面提高应对突发灾害和巨灾的应急能力;推动建立区域综合防灾减灾范式,系统实施绿色经济战略,大力推进节能减排,转变经济发展方式。     

水电工程下泄生态基流常用计算方法及软件开发

为了分析及确立生态基流,为水电工程环境影响评价提供依据,针对水电工程生态基流估算及决策过程繁复等问题,以2001—2015年水电工程环境影响评价及相关法律法规为基础,分析我国生态基流管理实践中使用最广泛的4种计算方法,即Tennant法、月基本流量法、最小流量法及7Q10法,并编制生态基流决策支持软件,并应用软件在汉江流域进行实例验证。结果表明,该软件能够提供多种计算方法及对比分析功能,可为水电工程下泄生态基流计算及决策提供计算平台。4种计算方法在汉江流域计算结果差异较大。总体而言,干流适合最小流量法及Tennant法,支流适合Tennant法。研究成果具有较大的实际应用和推广价值。     

Ergonomics interventions to reduce musculoskeletal risk factors in a truck manufacturing plant

Ergonomic interventions may potentially reduce MSDs, but the context of industries (barriers, ever-changing situations, dialogue processes) might play a significant role in the success of interventions. This study evaluates the effectiveness of ergonomic interventions including engineering/technical and organizational interventions, and the involvement of the stakeholders in reducing musculoskeletal risk factors/symptoms. A pre-post-test experimental study in non-randomized groups was performed over three years in a sector of a truck assembly plant. The mean age of the operators in the sector for the initial and second assessment time was 42.0 (±7.6) years and 39.0 (±8.7), respectively. The mean length of work experience in the current job was 15.2 (±7.2) years and 13.9 (±7.3) for the initial and second assessment times, respectively. Five engineering ergonomic solutions and organizational interventions were implemented after a comprehensive ergonomic analysis. The organizational interventions consisted mostly of transferring and redistributing the tasks, i.e., ergonomically balancing and redesigning of the workstations. Before performing the interventions, the findings of the ergonomic study were presented at several meetings to encourage the involvement of the stakeholders (including managers, engineers, and operators) in the interventions. This study showed that a combination of ergonomic measures—engineering and organizational interventions—could reduce physical workloads. Musculoskeletal symptoms decreased after interventions although the difference was not significant.     

Airborne spread of expiratory droplet nuclei between the occupants of indoor environments: A review

This article reviews past studies of airborne transmission between occupants in indoor environments, focusing on the spread of expiratory droplet nuclei from mouth/nose to mouth/nose for non‐specific diseases. Special attention is paid to summarizing what is known about the influential factors, the inappropriate simplifications of the thermofluid boundary conditions of thermal manikins, the challenges facing the available experimental techniques, and the limitations of available evaluation methods. Secondary issues are highlighted, and some new ways to improve our understanding of airborne transmission indoors are provided. The characteristics of airborne spread of expiratory droplet nuclei between occupants, which are influenced correlatively by both environmental and personal factors, were widely revealed under steady‐state conditions. Owing to the different boundary conditions used, some inconsistent findings on specific influential factors have been published. The available instrumentation was too slow to provide accurate concentration profiles for time‐dependent evaluations of events with obvious time characteristics, while computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies were mainly performed in the framework of inherently steady Reynolds‐averaged Navier‐Stokes modeling. Future research needs in 3 areas are identified: the importance of the direction of indoor airflow patterns, the dynamics of airborne transmission, and the application of CFD simulations.     

多因素耦合作用下地下厂房施工进度风险分析及其应用

为深入分析地下厂房施工进度风险因素之间的耦合作用及耦合效应,采用WBS-RBS法识别了影响施工进度的人、物、环境、管理4类风险因素,基于系统动力学方法揭示了同质单因素和异质双-多因素耦合关系,在此基础上建立了同质单因素耦合度模型和异质双-多因素N-K模型,运用蒙特卡罗法模拟了各风险因素对进度影响的概率分布,分析耦合强度。工程实例应用表明,各类风险子系统中存在较大的同质单因素耦合风险,应加强针对性预防和控制;异质双-多因素耦合中,有管理因素参与耦合的风险较大,实际施工中应尽可能减少多因素参与耦合。     

Cross-regional integrated energy system scheduling optimization model considering conditional value at risk

Integrated energy system is a very important way to improve energy efficiency. Based on the combined heating cooling and power system, combined with energy storage equipment, a cross-regional integrated energy system scheduling optimization problem is studied. An integrated energy system scheduling optimization model is established that meets the requirements of electrical, heating, and cooling load under a variety of energy sources while both considering the interaction of electrical, heating, and cooling load between regions, and complementation of them within one region. Meanwhile, the value at risk (VaR) theory is introduced and the operating constraints of equipment in the integrated energy system fully considered, the integrated energy system scheduling model with VaR is established. The example shows that the model can realize multi-type electrical, heating, and cooling load optimized by schedule across regions under the premise of satisfying the balance of energy supply and demand, which can reduce the system operation cost. The sensitivity analysis of the minimum expected cost and the influencing factors of conditional VaR is carried out to verify the validity and feasibility of the proposed model.

• An integrated energy system scheduling optimization model is established that meets the requirements of electrical, heating, and cooling load under a variety of energy sources while both considering the interaction of electrical, heating, and cooling load between regions, and complementation of them within one region.
• By using the conditional value at risk theory to consider various types of the integrated energy system complements and evaluates the operational risk of the system under optimal operating conditions of the system.
• The total cost of system scheduling operation is proportional to the storage capacity, which is inversely proportional to the heat storage capacity and inversely proportional to the pipeline capacity within a certain interval.

     

Backtesting portfolio value-at-risk with estimated portfolio weights

This article theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio value-at-risk (VaR) with estimation risk in an intrinsically multi-variate framework. It particularly takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating portfolio weights and that from estimating the multi-variate dynamic model make the existing methods in a univariate framework inapplicable. It proposes a general theory to quantify estimation risk applicable to the present problem and suggests practitioners a simple but effective way to implement valid inference to overcome the effect of estimation risk in backtesting portfolio VaR. In particular, we apply our theory to the efficient mean-variance-skewness portfolio for a multi-variate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with multi-variate general hyperbolic distributed innovations. Some Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate the merits of our method.     

地勘单位转制后税务风险识别与控制

结合“减税降费”的政策背景,以陕西省某转制地勘单位为例,引入风险控制相关理论并应用层次分析法,构建了税务风险评估指标体系,对转制地勘单位面临的税务风险进行了识别、分析、评估。研究结果表明:针对不同的税收类型,应着重关注不同方面的风险,排序前6位的风险依次为企业所得税扣除类风险、增值税决策环节风险、增值税销售环节风险、房产税计税依据风险、企业所得税税收优惠类风险、增值税采购环节风险;并对上述风险的控制机制进行了分析,从企业管控、政策优化两方面分别提出了相关对策和建议。